Tip for Betting Baseball Totals

During a MLB baseball season when so many top pitchers (Scherzer, deGrom, Sale, Snell and so on) are struggling, it doesn't make sense for a sports gambler to lay $250 to win $100 for selecting a side. It's also turning into a baseball season where baseballs are flying out of baseball stadiums in record numbers. If it's easier to rely on hitters instead of pitchers for consistency, this might be the right season to start betting on baseball totals.

The NBA basketball, Premiere League soccer and NHL hockey seasons are winding down. Other than Aussie Rules Football, Major League Baseball, horse racing and online casino gambling with casinos like Choice Casinos are the only gambling options readily available for the avid online gambler. If a gambler has a strong preference for sports gambling, MLB is the best option available.

When game unpredictability becomes an issue, betting on totals is usually a viable alternative. As mentioned above, this might be the season for handicappers to focus on betting baseball over/under totals.

The Problems with Betting on Pitching Matchups Exposed

Handicapping totals requires the handicapper to look at each game a little differently than if they are trying to isolate a side for wagering purposes. Betting a side requires the handicapper to focus on pitching matchups. Last season, New York Mets pitcher Jake deGrom made clear how difficult it is to rely solely on pitching. During the 2018 season, deGrom won the NL Cy Young award with an ERA of 1.71, a WHIP of 0.91 and 269 strikeouts. He only won 10 games against 9 losses and 13 no-decisions. The 10 wins was the lowest win total for a starting Cy Young Award-winning pitcher in MLB history. Considering he was listed in the -180 range for most home games and -150 on the road, a gambler who bet deGrom every game suffered a significant net loss.

Of course, there's a lot more information that's needed when betting a side. That's exactly the point. If a gambler takes all the data into account, places a bet on a Cy Young Award winner and losses consistently, there's a problem.

Handicapping Totals

With starting pitchers being relegated to 5-6 inning per start on even a good day, they don't warrant as much handicapping focus as they used to when betting totals. That has translated to the handicapper needing to shift more of their focus to offences.

Year after year, established hitters are consistent. They put forth somewhat predicable results on a consistent basis. The most useful tool a handicapper has in their arsenal is batter/pitcher matchup data. Batters hit with consistent results against certain kinds of pitchers, be it left-handers vs right-handers or curve-ballers versus fastball pitchers.

With only 13-14 potential batters on a given team, it's relatively easy to assess how all batters on a given team might perform against the listed starting pitcher and a couple of top relievers on the opposing team. If this level of analysis is employed for both teams going into a given game, the handicapper might be able to identify games where the over or under has a decided edge.

A decided edge is all it should take for a sports gambler to pull the trigger when only having to lay approximately $110 to win $100.